Creeping Disasters
Kartikeya V. Sarabhai
At 8.46 am on the 26th of January 2001, an earthquake measuring 7.7 on
the Richter scale hit Gujarat. Over 20,000 lives were lost, most
of them within minutes of the earthquake. While the epicenter was in
Kachchh, almost 340,000 buildings were destroyed and property worth over
Rs. 10,000 crore was lost across the state. The response to the
disaster was overwhelming. Gujarat has had a long history of mobilizing
itself in times of crises. A disaster had struck and we needed to
rebuild and rebuild in such a way that if this were to happen again we
would not lose so many lives and property.
On the whole we are very good at responding when sudden disaster
strikes. We get together, we mobilize all resources and we get the
best technical advice. We show true community spirit, and we
overcome.
But all disasters do not happen in the sudden way of an earthquake or a
tsunami. Many changes, that have a far greater impact, happen
slowly. We see the changes only gradually and incrementally, never
realizing their full potential for impact. It is a little like
gaining weight. Each milligram gained is too small to notice, and
yet, before you know it you have put on several kilograms. In most such
cases, the problem is not that we do not get warnings, but that we do
not think of them seriously, and as a result do not act. The sense
of urgency is missing. The people who warn are seen as doomsday
soothsayers, not to be taken too seriously.
According to the
American Cancer Society over 400,000 people die each year in the US from
diseases related to smoking. In 1950 an article in the British
Medical Journal clearly showed evidence of the link between smoking and
lung cancer. For the next 15 years the matter remained contentious as
industry lobbies in the US put up alternative arguments. Finally
the reports connecting lung cancer to smoking - direct and passive -
were so overwhelming that the US Government made it mandatory that all
manufacturers put a warning on cigarette packs. In 1970 cigarette
advertising was banned, in 1987 smoking on planes was banned, and in
2003 you could no longer smoke in public places in New York.. It took
around 50 years for the study to form effective public policy.
Changing patterns in
climate started being noticed since the mid-20th century. Many dismissed
these as cyclical changes but evidences pointed to what seemed like a
trend, a trend that could not be explained away as normal cyclical
climatic changes. The science of climate change evolved over the next
decade. The issue continued to be debated leading to the United Nations
and the World Meteorology Organisation setting up the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the year 1988. This body of over 3000
scientists is to look at all the evidence available and come out with a
definitive statement on the issue. In early 2007 the IPCC in its Fourth
Assessment Report stated “Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal.”.
The evidence is
overwhelming, it is time to act. Climate change is evolving as one of
the major defining factors for human development in years to come. The
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 2007/2008 Human Development
Report is titled ‘Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided
world’. The report reiterates the consequences that climate change will
bring on our future and the fact that in long run it is a massive threat
to human development. During his Budget speech for the year 2006-07
Gujarat C.M. Shri. Naredrabhai Modi emphasized improving Gujarat’s
performance on the human development index along with economic
indicators. As the UNDP report shows this can only be done by
simultaneously looking at climate change issues. Gujarat is particularly
vulnerable to climate change and over the next few articles we will talk
about how climate change has occurred, what we need to do so as to
mitigate it and how we may need to adapt to the changes that are now
inevitable.
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