Backcasting
Suitable for Steps 7, 8, 9
Duration
1 to 2 hours
Material Needed
Writing materials
Group size
Pairs or groups of four
Objective
To enable learners to develop realistic working plans for intended changes in the future.
Description
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then working backwards to identify policies and programs that may connect that specified future to the present.
Starting from this future scenario, you will think about the various conditions that would be in place at the point. Then keep working further backwards (to the present time) to realistically plan the nature of the steps to be taken as well as the strategy to take these steps.
Note that backcasting is different from forecasting. In forecasting, the idea is to use current knowledge and trends to predict what will happen in the future. In backcasting, the approach is to envision the future, and ask what actions must be taken to get there. Backcasting and forecasting may be used in a complementary manner.
Contribution to Systems Thinking competence
The learning method is helpful to develop visions of an intended future and the strategic steps to reach there (in time). This is the contribution of the learning method to improve systems thinking competence.
Based on such a detailed description and the resulting drawing, the learner will be equipped to ask further leading questions, to understand the reality of the topic more deeply.
EXAMPLE
If the intention is to produce only organic cotton by say 2030, then you start from that intended reality in future and think backwards about what you will have to do to reach this state. Alternative materials, dyes, cloth markets and many such aspects have to be considered and arranged in a logical time frame.
Based on such a detailed description and the resulting drawing, the learner will be equipped to ask further leading questions, to understand the reality of the topic more deeply.
Further Resources
Sustainability Strategy: Backcasting from Success by Sustainability Illustrated, Jan 22, 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeDm-HTFuiY
Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development.
https://eujournalfuturesresearch.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40309-018-0142-z
